霍华德•马克斯：如何避免成为输家？

我想分享一段深刻影响我的投资理念。
I’d like to share an investment philosophy that has deeply shaped me.
1974 年，投资思想家查尔斯・埃利斯发表经典文章《赢得输家的游戏》。
In 1974, investment thinker Charles Ellis published the classic essay Winning the Loser’s Game.
这个观点源自西蒙・拉莫，也就是 TRW 里的 R，一位网球爱好者。
The idea comes from Simon Ramo, the "R" of TRW, a tennis lover.
他在书中区分职业与业余网球的取胜逻辑。
In his book, he distinguished winning rules for pro and amateur tennis.
职业赛场靠制胜分取胜，要主动打出高难度进攻球。
Professionals win by hitting powerful winners and tough attacking shots.
业余赛场恰恰相反，少失误才是获胜关键。
Amateur games work differently: minimizing errors is the key to victory.
普通球手很难稳定打出高质量进攻，稳拉回合，对手更容易主动失误。
Casual players cannot land tough shots consistently. Keep the ball in play, and opponents will self-destruct.
埃利斯把这套逻辑迁移到投资市场。
Ellis brought this tennis mindset into finance.
不必押注暴富机会，规避致命风险才是长线制胜之道。
Instead of betting everything on quick windfalls, avoid devastating risks to win long-term.
我天生谨慎，父辈经历过大萧条，从小牢记分散投资、储备避险的道理。
I am inherently cautious. My parents lived through the Great Depression, teaching me to diversify and save for hard times.
因此我始终选择靠规避重大错误走完投资长路。
So I choose to win the long investing journey by steering clear of fatal mistakes.
橡树资本创立之初，我们就定下核心准则。
When we founded Oaktree, we set two core principles from day one.
第一严控风险，第二保持长期稳定收益。
First, strict risk control; second, steady long-term returns.
二者核心都是避免被市场淘汰。
Both aim at one thing: never get washed out by the market.
当然，这套策略要匹配自身能力与预期，不能盲目照搬。
Still, this strategy must fit your real skills and ambitions, not be copied blindly. http://t.cn/AXobuSiH