BofA: Memory

> Investor Concerns: Recent sharp corrections in Korean and Japanese memory stocks were driven by fears of weaker-than-expected Q2 DRAM average selling prices (ASPs), potential earnings misses in the second half of the year, limited pricing impact from new HBM4 technology, and rigid pricing under long-term agreements (LTAs).

> BofA's View: BofA believes it is too early to expect an earnings contraction. They project that memory chipmakers' Q2 operating profits (OP) will easily meet or exceed market consensus.

> Conventional Memory Surge: Conventional memory is acting as a primary growth driver, with ASPs already jumping 50–60%+ quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q2, as seen in recent results from Micron and Nanya Tech.

> Robust Export Data: South Korean semiconductor exports showed immense strength for three consecutive months (April–June) and spiked +193% year-on-year (YoY) during the first 10 days of July.

> DRAM Spot Prices: After a brief dip in April, DRAM spot prices resumed their rally in June.

Upward DRAM ASP Outlook

BofA remains optimistic about Q3 DRAM ASP growth due to three main factors:

> More than 50% of conventional DRAM sales are not yet bound by LTAs, leaving high upside for price increases.

> Increasing shipments of HBM4 will begin replacing cheaper HBM3e, lifting the blended ASP.

> Newly negotiated quarterly contract prices are already up 20%+ QoQ.

Global Total DRAM ASP Forecasts (QoQ Growth)

Q2: +53%
Q3: +21%
Q4: +7%

Note: Korea's lower Q2 ASP increase (low-to-mid 40%) is considered a temporary, Q2-specific variance due to stable HBM prices and an exceptionally high Q1 baseline. BofA expects Korea's Q3 ASP trends to align closely with global trends, supporting strong ongoing earnings momentum into the second half of the year.