J.P. Morgan: Memory Update

> DRAM Supply Deficit (2026E–2027E): DRAM bit demand is projected to significantly outpace bit shipments in 2026E (32.5% vs 22.9%) and 2027E (34.4% vs 21.7%), pointing to a tight market before flipping to an oversupply in 2028E (21.1% vs 23.8%).

> NAND Consistently Demand-Driven: Across almost the entire forecast period (2025A–2027E), NAND bit demand percentages consistently outpace shipments. By 2028E, the gap narrows drastically to a near-balance of 22.3% demand vs 20.9% shipment.

> Both markets show consistent year-over-year growth in absolute terms, with DRAM demand scaling toward 80,000+ M (8Gb Eq.) and NAND scaling toward 60,000 Mn (256Gb Equi) by 2028E.

DRAM Market Trends:

2026E: Demand peaks sharply at 32.5% while shipment growth sits at 22.9%.

2027E: Demand growth remains high at 34.4% vs. 21.7% shipment growth.

2028E: The trend reverses; demand drops to 21.1% while shipment growth edges higher to 23.8%.

Bit demand steadily pulls ahead of both actual bit consumption and bit supply in 2026E and 2027E, leading to a noticeable supply gap before tightening up in 2028E.

NAND Market Trends:

2025A: Showed 19.3% demand vs. 14.5% shipment.

2026E: Spikes to 23.0% demand vs. 19.8% shipment.

2027E: Reaches a demand growth peak of 29.4% vs. 21.2% shipment.

2028E: Settles to 22.3% demand vs. 20.9% shipment.

In 2026E, bit consumption is expected to temporarily overshoot bit demand, but by 2027E and 2028E, absolute bit demand clearly leads the metric totals.