Brazil's 4-1 victory over South Korea in the 2022 Qatar World Cup saw them favored by 1.75, with the result being 4-1.

Moving to the 2025 friendly match, Brazil was favored by 1 in Seoul, South Korea's home ground, and won 5-0. Four days later in the Kirin Cup, Brazil was again favored by 1 away but lost 2-3.

Given Brazil's less star-studded squad in recent years, it’s understandable that bookmakers lack confidence in them. When South Korea plays Japan, Japan is typically favored by a slight margin (e.g., -0.25), so today’s neutral-ground odds of Brazil favored by 0.75 over Japan are reasonable.

In the most recent Kirin Cup, Japan defeated Brazil 3-2, which happened after Brazil’s Asian tour where they crushed South Korea 5-0. During that match, Brazil initially led 2-0, but Japan scored all three goals in the second half, with the last two coming from a Brazilian defensive error and an own goal. Ancelotti must remain highly vigilant today against defensive lapses and red cards.

Predicted score: Brazil 5-2 Japan.