Being right, and getting better at being right, is a completely different task from convincing other people you are right and explaining to them why they could be wrong. In a regime like this, it has never been more important to stay laser focused on getting better at being right than to keep telling everyone there are multiple scenarios in play. And it's not that the other views are wrong. Depending on your fundamental view of how the data evolves, your own view could range anywhere from three cuts to three hikes. The distribution is that wide. The market is subject to higher volatility, and you can essentially flip a coin and say yields go up or down from here. Half of the time you'd be right.

So when I feel I'm grasping it early, to the point where I think I hold a view I know could become a high conviction one, it's exciting and a little frightening at the same time. And I don't want to lose the groove by debating people this early. It is too soon, and too hard to see. But in my gut I know it could well be the one. Holding it to my chest, and spending more time reading and absorbing different views...

Might go quiet for a little while so won't be taking questions... I'll come back when I feel I have something substantial to say.