新主席思考框架上的转变（先记下来，之后再继续RL) V1.0
P.s. 方便我自己思考记下来的草稿，不用太认真。

1. 似乎认为政策指定需要同时考虑supply 和 demand vs 老鲍和传统看法认为货币政策一般是需求端工具无法解决供给端的问题（因此更容易倾向于look through 和transitory...)

证据：CHAIRMAN WARSH. It's a good question. At the central bank in an economics
profession, what we spend most of our time doing is counting demand. It's easier. We can see it, we can count it, we can check it, we can revise it. What we do, though, is we infer supply. You'll notice in the second paragraph of what one of your colleagues described as, "A very short statement," we have a sentence on the demand side and a sentence about the same length on the supply side. They're both important. Just because we can count one better than the other doesn't mean we're going to favor one more than the other.

2. 似乎认为货币政策和资产负债表政策是更为平等的? vs 货币政策是主要工具而资产负债表是背景工具。。。

证据：That's perhaps a function of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, whether monetary policy is coming from our interest rate tool or our balance sheet tool.

3. 对AI的看法相对比较均衡，同时提到了生产力和资本投资，目前听起来似乎同意先bear flatten后twist steepen。

证据：声明：Productivity growth and capital investment are strong.

"With respect to AI and the growth of data centers and infrastructure around it, we're counting the demand side, and it is no doubt showing up in GDP figures. We can be less certain when we infer the timing and extent of the growth on the supply side. It may well be an intuition the supply side is going to expand, but it'll take longer, but just describe it this way. There's a race between supply and demand. "

4. 感觉同意政策的限制性不够的判断，但是对通胀的看法好像不完全像是纯粹鹰派。这段话听起来还是更在意通胀预期和persistency。但是短期的态度可能是为了团结committee，声明和开场白肯定是有意为之的。pretty obvious he doenst care about the labor market, at least as long as it stays the way it is.

证据：
My own judgment is the committee spent quite a bit of time not just in two days but over iterations of a couple weeks. That's what we're prepared to say about inflation, but the commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. And that's I think an important message we've missed for five years, and we're going to fix that.

CHAIRMAN WARSH. If I told somebody in the milk aisle that I had a task force for
that, I think that would be doing a very poor job, so I appreciate it. If I saw somebody in the grocery store, what I would say to them is that we cannot have a very significant effect on particular prices. The price of oil in the markets today or even the price of a dozen eggs, that does not have first-order consequences to what we're doing. But we do have a really important job there, and it's make sure that those changes in oil, or beef, or eggs, or milk don't broaden in the economy, don't have second- and third-order effects. That's our job, that's our commitment, that's our capability, and we're going to deliver on it.

5. 声明很重要。声明每一句都很关键。声明就是他的框架。

证据：CHAIRMAN WARSH. Yeah. I'm glad they're in the practice of giving you two
questions, because my answer to your first question was to be very curt. I've got nothing more to say than the statement itself. And to the point of the question I got before, market reactions to what we say, "unfiltered," I think is more helpful than having delivered a statement to me than improvising further upon it. -> 他认为记者发布会是improvising.... 那声明肯定就是写好的剧本是他想传递的东西咯？

6. 声明：
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote -》 委员会同意他的做法，证明他团结到了人，证明他想团结人。证明他想团结的人怎么看很重要。证明dots仍然有价值。

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. -》ample reserves。

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. -> 第一句是经济增长。第二句是AI涉及的生产力增长和资本支出问题。第三句是劳动力市场，但基本上证明他只追求full employment而不是max employment.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability. -> 这个in part是鹰的，证明他认为供给端冲击不止在油价，不止有一个（supply shock "s")在作用，最后一句掷地有声，很鹰。

7. ample reserves不知道是不是暂时的，感觉也不能完全排除

“The second task force, the one on balance sheet policy, will review the benefits and risks of the current ample reserves regime, and the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet. They will assess alternative frameworks for the conduct and operation of monetary policy”