26-04-19 22:07 微博认证:香港珠海学院一带一路研究所所长 港澳经济研究会理事

研究院同事有关美伊读判進一步分析。

Pakistan's Diplomatic Push in the US-Iran Peace Process

The Pakistani delegations involved in mediating the US-Iran peace process have returned home. Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, accompanied by his team, arrived back from Tehran after high-level talks with Iranian leaders and peace negotiators. Separately, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar returned from a multi-country tour of the Middle East and Türkiye, where they engaged regional partners to build momentum for the negotiations.

Sources in Islamabad indicate that Pakistani officials are now closely assessing the latest developments. There is a possibility of delays in the next round of direct dialogue between the US and Iran, which had previously taken place in Islamabad without reaching a breakthrough. Therefore, the US President Trump’s announcement of the weekend talks in Islamabad couldn’t have happened. Pakistan will also try to hold the ceasefire as the situation could enter a very critical stage.

Iranian authorities have conveyed that the Pakistani delegation brought back some new proposals or demands from the American side. Tehran is currently reviewing these. According to well-placed sources, Iran is facing significant internal challenges this time. Due to the absence of a fully centralised and active command structure — following heavy leadership losses during the recent conflict — it has become difficult for Iranian decision-makers to reach a unified position quickly.

Iran's current leadership involves a mix of political and military figures. On the political side are Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and others. On the military side are senior commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including its chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, among others. This fragmented setup has complicated coordinated responses.

Tensions within Iran became evident recently when Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Almost immediately afterward, amid statements from US President Donald Trump, the IRGC issued sharp public criticism of the Foreign Minister. The IRGC then effectively retracted the decision, leading to the strait being closed again. This internal friction highlighted divisions between Iran's diplomatic and military wings.

President Trump's public comments — boasting about Iran's weakened position and its enriched uranium stockpiles — have further complicated the atmosphere and created additional hurdles for any potential deal. In response to Iran's announcement regarding the Strait, Trump convened a meeting in the White House Situation Room with senior political and military advisers.

During this period of heightened tensions, Iranian vessels reportedly targeted an Indian-flagged ship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, prompting concerns from New Delhi.

Does this mean the peace process has stopped?

Sources close to the developments say, “No, it’s not like that. Such ups and downs often occur during complex diplomatic processes. You could say tensions have erupted, but we are not at a dead end.”

According to these sources, both the US and Iran are now applying pressure and pushing for greater concessions. This tactic could either accelerate negotiations toward a compromise or risk derailing the peace efforts if miscalculations occur on either side.

What happens next?

Sources describe the path forward as challenging. Core disputes remain unresolved, mutual trust is scarce, hardliners on both sides are deeply entrenched, and external spoilers continue to complicate matters.

“The nuclear issue is complex in all its dimensions,” one source noted. “It is intertwined with sanctions relief, ceasefire terms, compensation questions, and the delicate sequencing of reciprocal steps.”

As a result, delays in achieving concrete results should be expected. Pakistan continues to play a key mediating role, with indications that technical-level or higher talks could resume in Islamabad.

 

 

发布于 中国香港