最新一期All-In，提到“去美元化”和金价时Friedberg 蹦出几个字：“美国内战”，吓我一跳。上一次有人当面跟我认真提这个词，还是Jeffrey Sachs。联储接下来大概逻辑应该是这样：1利率继续下调 ：政府还债压力小点 2 QT（至少不再无脑放水）3 对高收入加税：增收 + 缓解分配矛盾4利率下调+ 财政扩张：利好 AI 科技产业。（原文有all in的摘要节选）

贴在这里：All-in Jan 31 excerpts:Dollar index is down 10% in the last year. Hit its lowest level in four years on Tuesday. Trump was asked if the dollar declined too much.His quote, no, I think it's great. Wall Street thinks Trump wants a weaker dollar to boost US manufacturing and exports. Obviously, we have a weaker dollar.That means the stuff from the US is cheaper. Foreign stuff becomes more expensive. And we have a situation here, Friedberg, that you've talked about.Money printing has increased to $2.5 trillion a year. Trump wants to print an additional $500 billion more. That would bring us close to $3 trillion.And money has poured into gold and silver, which have way outperformed the S&P, Friedberg, your thoughts on dollar devaluation and what we're seeing?Yeah, so people talk about the market going up, but I'll use an analogy. If you live on an island and there's two huts on the island and there's a bunch of shells that people are using for trade, each house is going to be worth a certain number of shells. And then if people went and found a whole bunch of more shells, the price per house would go up in number of shells. But there's just more shells in the supply and effectively you've inflated everything. And that's effectively what's gone on with the US fiscal condition. We've talked about this many times, but I think it's always worth a rehash.In a democracy like we have for the past 250 years, without adequate constitutional constraints, it has always been the case that over time, government spending goes up. And this is because in a democracy, people ask for their government to do more every year.And they spend more. And eventually, when the borrowing capacity gets unlocked, which is what happened in the United States, when we went off the gold standard, you borrow like crazy, you print money to fund those borrowing costs. And you use that fundamentally to drive the next voting cycle, which is to give people more and more of what they want.But eventually, the bill comes to you. And in the United States, the bill is coming to you. Let's start by looking at the money supply chart.This is the M2 money supply chart showing the rapid rise in dollars in supply as a function of the Central Bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, making loans to banks, ultimately to fund federal spending. I mean, really an extraordinary number. And if you look at the M2 money supply chart going back to 1960, 1955, and you can see post-COVID, we were hoping that we would have resolved and sort of reduced the money supply by some amount.But COVID really created this accelerating mechanism and we're back on track in the last couple of years to increasing the money supply. And so over time, the US dollar gets devalued as there are simply more dollars in the market and US treasuries gets challenged. So if we take a look here, around the world, central banks have decided that they no longer want to hold US treasuries.And so this is the value of gold versus treasuries in central banks in their inventory. So we are now seeing that for the first time in history, Hold on, hold on.That's not accurate. That's not accurate. It's not like they're selling.This line just shows it's stable, per se, right? It's more that the incremental buying is in real assets.Yeah, but the dollar value is also adjusted. So fundamentally, I mean, one way to think about this is the relative value of central bank holdings around the world. We now see gold eclipsing US treasury.So now gold is a larger share of the holdings. Yeah. So now gold is a larger share of the holdings of central banks.If you look at the next chart, which is just over the past year, as Jay Cal pointed out, this is the dollar index. So it's the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies has declined from an index of about, call it 109 down to 96 today. This chart actually looks at, so what is the US stock market trading at?And instead of trading it in US dollars, what if you just looked at the US stock market, the total value in ounces of gold? And so if we had the gold standard still, and if we functionally converted stock market value from dollars back into gold, you can see that the stock markets in the United States over the past years, so this is about seven and a half years going back to the pre-COVID era, is actually down, down pretty substantively from the pre-COVID era. So stock markets are fundamentally down.Everyone's cheering, clapping, bouncing up and down. Stock markets are up, stock markets are up. And I'm gonna tell you why this is important in a minute.And everyone's jumping up and down, saying, great, the stock market's up. The stock market's up in dollar-denominated terms. But if you look at the stock market relative to gold, it's actually down.“So the third year yield is now at 4.9%. The average US government's cost to borrow today is 3.3%. So if we end up needing to roll all of the US government debt, assuming we take on no new debt, which we know is not the case, $39 trillion of debt outstanding, the federal government level today, and it had to get refinanced at this rate, we would have an incremental annual cost to service the debt, just the interest on the existing debt of roughly $700 billion a year.Incremental cost to service existing debt as interest rates climb from 3.3% to 5%. And so fundamentally, this is about 70% of the current defense budget. It's about 10% of the overall federal budget.It's a significant percentage of US GDP, about 3% of US GDP. It's a substantial number, and it creates the spiraling problem that we're in. Now, I just want to make one final point.So there's this de-dollarization moment. It's always worth having a reflection on it, but I just want to tie it back to Minnesota, Donald Trump and socialism. And I think it's important for us to just highlight that if you own assets, like we do, the four of us, we own stocks, we own real estate, we own other assets.As the dollar devalues and everything inflates in value, our asset prices go up, and we get wealthier and wealthier and wealthier. The majority of Americans do not own assets. They are net asset negative.As a result, they live off of income, and they do not benefit from the de-dollarization like asset holders do. And this is what is ultimately fueling populism in the United States. And the populism in the United States is what is driving socialism, and the response to those behaviors is what Donald Trump elected to some degree, and the response to the Donald Trump actions is what's driving the civil unrest in Minnesota and other places.And I fundamentally believe that much of the unrest, the civil unrest, and ultimately this divide in this country, is driven by the fact that de-dollarization, because of excess government spending, ultimately leads a majority of people in this country to feeling oppressed and left behind because they're seeing a few people because they're seeing a few people in the country accelerate their net worth, like all of us here, and there's no way for them to catch up because they don't actually own assets. So I'll be honest with you guys and make a confession. I was kind of, I was at the gym this morning on the treadmill.You were at the gym?Yeah. And while I was there, I was actually thinking about the wealth tax stuff that's going on in California. And I wonder if it may be an inevitability in order to keep the United States from going into civil war.I mean that very wholeheartedly. Like, I just don't know if there's a way of solving this fiscal problem without a functional redistribution of wealth. And the question is, can you do it violently or non-violently?And if there's a non-violent path, I think that's probably the preferable path.Do you ever think about violently picking up some of those weights?We can leave that in or take it out.The problem with that is, look, you know where this California wealth tax is going, right “It's not going to the quote unquote people. It's going to these special interests who've been living in the state for decades.Audit everything before you raise taxes. It's very simple, folks. Audit everything.I mean, if the money is going to waste, foreign abuse and special interests, then how do you solve the divide problem? I mean, I guess the ones that the special interests are capable of organizing are able to extract. That doesn't actually solve the problem.In fact, everything gets worse because those government special interests generally rig the system in their favor in a way that actually raises the cost for everybody. So you look at California, everything's performing worse.”