研究同事Nadeen博士的分析

Iran-US Talks Via Pakistan

All intelligence agencies and government officials have been instructed not to comment or leak any information regarding the talks. It has been made clear that the final and official statements will only be issued through the Foreign Office. However, the Pakistan military is scheduled to hold a press conference today, and there are expectations that some confirmation may be provided during it.

Through conversations with various diplomats, we have gathered the following confirmed information:

The sources confirmed that Pakistan’s Army Chief held talks with Donald Trump. Following these discussions and subsequent talks between Iran and Pakistan’s Prime Minister, US President Donald Trump announced the so-called ceasefire. However, the sources also noted that trusting President Trump is like “walking on water.”

According to the sources, these developments came after more than a week of intense communication involving several countries. Egypt and Turkey also played a significant role. Pakistan was ultimately chosen as the neutral venue for the talks. The ceasefire with Afghanistan was part of these broader communications, and India was reportedly asked not to create any issues with Pakistan so that Islamabad could fully focus on the negotiations.

The negotiations are expected to cover several key elements:

Immediate Ceasefire and Peace Maintenance: The first element is a complete halt in all military operations from both sides. Beyond merely stopping attacks, both parties will discuss measures to maintain lasting peace.

Opening of the Strait of Hormuz: Under these conditions, negotiations will begin on the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It will not be opened abruptly.

Restraining Israel and Regional Actors: Iran is expected to demand that Israel halt not only its direct hostile activities but also any operations conducted through the United Arab Emirates. Diplomatic circles indicate that Iran is highly displeased with the UAE’s role in the recent conflict.

Nuclear Program: The third major point will be to persuade Iran to either completely stop nuclear enrichment or reduce it to a level that poses no threat to other countries under international monitoring. A related issue is the possible handover of Iran’s already enriched uranium stockpile (approximately 400 kilograms). Diplomatic sources believe President Trump is particularly eager to secure this as a political trophy, though Iran may resist.

Compensation and Sanctions Relief: The fourth element involves compensation for Iran. While the US is unlikely to provide direct compensation, there is a possibility that the international community may assist by lifting sanctions to support Iran’s reconstruction.

Security Guarantees and US Military Presence: The fifth and most challenging element will involve Iran demanding two key concessions:

Strong future security guarantees that Iran will not be attacked.

The removal of US military bases from the Middle East. The demand for base removal is seen as a way to exert maximum pressure on the US to secure robust guarantees.

China has also urged Iran to seize this opportunity for the sake of global peace. Besides, China is closely working with Pakistan on the negotiations and arrangements for it. There are regular meetings between Chinese and Pakistani diplomats at the Foreign Office in Islamabad. But officials from both countries avoid speaking or speculating about anything right now.